Friday, August 31, 2012

AFC West Preview

Denver Broncos QB Peyton Manning.
The AFC West division was clearly the worst division in football, with all four teams finishing within a game of each other. The Denver Broncos won the division with an 8-8 record. The San Diego Chargers and the Oakland Raiders also finished the season with an 8-8 record, but lost out on the title on tiebreakers. The Broncos rode the heroics of fan favorite QB Tim Tebow after starting 1-4 under QB Kyle Orton. Tebow had memorable fourth-quarter performances in several wins, including in the AFC Wild Card matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Broncos now have QB Peyton Manning running the show, after winning the sweepstakes over the San Francisco 49ers, Arizona Cardinals and Tennessee Titans. The Broncos have now gone from a team without expectations last season to a team expected to compete for a championship. There is reason to believe that can happen. The Broncos were impressive defensively, especially when Tebow was very inept in most games during the first three quarters. However, S Brian Dawkins has retired, removing a veteran component that helped their defense emotionally. Dawkins only received limited snaps last season, so they will be able to recover in that aspect.

Oakland Raiders QB Carson Palmer.
A major adjustment is coming for the offensive players who played with Tebow last season. Guys like WR Eric Decker and WR Demaryius Thomas would go long stretches without getting any looks or catches. With Manning as the quarterback now, everyone is an option. Manning will scan through his options on every play if his first option isn't open or where he needs to be. The addition of veteran WR Brandon Stokley helps Manning out a lot. This is Stokley's second stint with the Broncos, but he was very valuable as the Indianapolis Colts' slot receiver when Manning was there. The running game which is held down by RB Willis McGahee and RB Knowshon Moreno should be solid like they were last season.

The Raiders decided it was worth the gamble to trade for QB Carson Palmer, who was retired. They gave up numerous high draft picks, in addition to re-working his contract in which he will be paid handsomely for the next couple of seasons. This occurred after incumbent starter QB Jason Campbell snapped his collarbone in Week 6 against the Cleveland Browns. After beating the Browns that week, the Raiders were 4-2. Palmer did not do well, especially after the Raiders threw him in right away, as he proceeded to throw three interceptions in his first game. Discipline is also an issue for this club, as they continue to lead the league in penalties every year.

San Diego Chargers QB Philip Rivers.
The Chargers were the favorites to win the division, but a subpar performance from QB Philip Rivers cost them. Rivers had 27 touchdowns, but was also intercepted a league-high 20 times. They started 4-1 before they went on a six-game losing streak that started with a loss at the New York Jets and included home losses to the Raiders and Broncos. The Chargers did have their chance at the end to still win the division. On Christmas Eve, they blew that chance by laying an egg in Detroit against the Detroit Lions. Now Rivers has to compete against Manning for the division crown at least for the near future.

The Kansas City Chiefs are the only team in the division to not finish 8-8, instead finishing 7-9. They dealt with injuries early and often. They lost RB Jamaal Charles in the second week of the season to a torn ACL, which made it a lot harder for QB Matt Cassel to be effective. Coming off of a 10-6 season and an AFC West crown, the Chiefs started their first two games of the season last year by losing to the Buffalo Bills at home 41-7, then losing to the Lions 48-3 the next week. While the Chiefs did bounce back by winning four straight after losing their first three, they followed that winning streak up by losing four straight.

Kansas City Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles.
This is another unpredictable division because there is a lot of potential for each team. The Raiders will need a solid performance from Palmer in order to have a shot at winning the division. If he doesn't, don't be surprised if new head coach Dennis Allen has a short leash and goes to QB Matt Leinart, or even QB Terrelle Pryor. A lot is riding on their receivers as well. Their top two receivers, WR Jacoby Ford and WR Darius Heyward-Bey, have not produced often to make defenses nervous. The Raiders drafted proficient WR Juron Criner of Arizona to help them in that department, and it seems as if they found something they like in undrafted speedy WR Rod Streater of the Temple Owls.

The Broncos are expected to compete for a lot more than a division title, but what happens if Manning's neck injury resurfaces at some point in the season? The Broncos will have to rely on QB Caleb Hanie, who has been in pressure situations before while with the Chicago Bears. If Manning gets injured again, that pretty much dashes all hope of a playoff appearance and a division title. The Chargers have been heavily dependent on Rivers to produce, and he let them down last season as he struggled to keep his turnovers down. Simply put, the Chargers will need the old Rivers if they want to win the division.

There are a lot of unknowns for the Chiefs. You would have to believe that Cassel will be on a short leash with head coach Romeo Crennel. They will need Charles to stay healthy for the majority of the season, if not all. S Eric Berry was also injured last season, so they will need him to stay healthy for their defense to thrive. They lost their best corner in CB Brandon Carr, but they picked up CB Stanford Routt from their division rivals in Oakland to play opposite CB Brandon Flowers. The Chiefs are capable of surprising a lot of people just as they did in 2010. Let's see what happens.

Predictions

Denver Broncos 11-5
San Diego Chargers 9-7
Kansas City Chiefs 7-9
Oakland Raiders 6-10

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